Tipps Türkiye Montenegro UEFA Nations League 11/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Turkey wins the match

1. Recent history favors Türkiye: In their last 5 home matches, Türkiye has won in 60% of cases, averaging 1.6 goals per match, while Montenegro has only won in 20% of away matches, with an average of 0.6 goals per match.

2. Superior offensive and defensive potential for Türkiye: Türkiye has shown an offensive potential of 57% and a defensive potential of 36% at home in their last 5 matches. In comparison, Montenegro only has an offensive potential of 21% and a defensive potential of 64% away from home.

3. Prediction probabilities: The prediction success probabilities favor Türkiye to win with a probability of 74.61%, which is significantly higher than Montenegro’s chances at 9.84% or even a draw at 15.54%.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“More than 2.5 goals in the match”

1. Goal History: Statistics show that Turkey and Montenegro tend to have high-scoring matches. For Turkey, they have scored 11 goals and conceded 12 goals in their last 5 home matches. On the other hand, Montenegro has scored 4 goals and conceded 7 goals in their last 5 away matches. These data suggest that both teams have significant offensive and defensive capabilities, which could lead to a highly competitive match with over 2.5 goals.

2. Offensive and Defensive Potential: Turkey has a 57% offensive potential and a 36% defensive potential in their home matches, while Montenegro has a 21% offensive potential and a 64% defensive potential in their away matches. These percentages, especially Turkey’s high offensive potential and Montenegro’s low defensive potential, suggest that there is likely to be over 2.5 goals in the match.

3. Calculated Probability: According to the calculated probabilities, there is a 58.03% probability of there being over 2.5 goals in the match. This relatively high probability is a strong indicator that it is likely the match will end with over 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Montenegro has a weak offensive potential away from home, having scored only 0.6 goals per match on average in their last 5 matches. This suggests they may not score in the upcoming match.
2. Turkey has a stronger defensive potential at home, conceding on average only 1 goal per match in their last 5 games. This reinforces the idea that Montenegro might struggle to score.
3. Based on statistics, Montenegro has suffered goalless defeats in their away matches against Iceland and Belgium, indicating they could face difficulties in scoring on the road.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Montenegro wins the match.

Bet on the exact result

Turkey 2-0 Montenegro

1. In its last 5 home matches, Türkiye has shown a strong offensive potential by scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game. Additionally, they have won 60% of the time, increasing the chances of a favorable score for Türkiye.

2. Montenegro has a weak offensive potential away from home, scoring an average of only 0.6 goals per game in their last 5 matches. Furthermore, Montenegro has a defensive weakness conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game away, which increases Türkiye’s chances of scoring.

3. The prediction of Türkiye to win the match has a high success probability of 74.61%, coupled with a prediction of Over 1.5 goals in the match with an 80.31% success probability. This supports the forecast of 2 goals scored in favor of Türkiye with a clean sheet victory.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Turkey shines at home, with a 60% win rate in their last 5 matches. Their games are high-scoring, with 11 goals scored. However, they have to keep in mind the 12 goals conceded.

Montenegro struggles away from home, winning only 1 out of 5 matches. Their defense shows weaknesses with 7 goals conceded, and their attack is not very effective with only 4 goals scored.

Turkey’s average goals at home is 1.6 per match compared to Montenegro’s 0.6 away. Turkey’s defense manages to limit goals to 1 per match, while Montenegro concedes 1.8.

The probabilities favor Turkey with 74.61%, indicating odds of 1.42, compared to only 9.84% for Montenegro with odds of 8.00.

The match looks lively, with an 80.31% chance of over 1.5 goals (odds 1.22) and a 58.03% chance of over 2.5 goals (odds 1.72).

As for “both teams to score”, it is quite evenly matched: 48.19% in favor (odds 1.95) and 51.81% against (odds 1.83).

In conclusion, Turkey seems to have the upper hand in this match, but be wary of the defensive line that has shown signs of weakness. Expect a match with over 1.5 goals. Both teams to score remains an uncertain option.

The potential number of goals

Turkey, at home, is performing well with a 60% victory rate in the last 5 matches. Montenegro, on the other hand, struggles away with only a 20% win rate. Considering these numbers, there is a 74.61% chance that Turkey will win this match.

In terms of goals, Turkey has scored 11 goals in 5 matches, which is much more than Montenegro’s 4 goals scored away in 5 matches. The goals conceded ratio also favors Turkey with a superior defensive potential.

In terms of probabilities, the idea of more than 1.5 goals in the match has a high success probability of 80.31%. Moreover, there is an 87.56% chance that there will be less than 4.5 goals in the game.

In conclusion, the safest prediction seems to be the bet “Turkey wins the match” with a probability of 74.61%. Additionally, the bet “more than 1.5 goals in the match” also offers good prospects with a probability of 80.31%.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, based on statistics, recent results, and calculated probabilities, Turkey appears as the favorite for this UEFA Nations League match against Montenegro, especially at home. With a win probability of 74.61% and a tendency to score an average of 1.6 goals per home game, a bet on a Turkey victory seems to be a solid option.

However, football is unpredictable, and even though the statistics suggest that Turkey is more likely to win this match, victory is not guaranteed. That’s why, in the case of a bet, it is crucial to consider the associated risk.

For example, a bet on a Montenegro win, although less likely, could offer a significant return on investment with odds at 8.00. This represents an interesting “value bet” for bold bettors.

In terms of goals, everything indicates that it will be a high-scoring match, with a 58.03% probability for over 2.5 goals. Furthermore, it is more likely that only Turkey will score, based on recent statistics.

All of this is to say that, of course, every bet involves a level of risk. Each bettor must assess their options based on their risk appetite, while keeping in mind that even the most careful and detailed analysis does not guarantee a definitive outcome. Ultimately, matches are won on the field, not on paper.