Tipps Urawa FC Tokyo J1 League 21/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

My prediction for this match is: Urawa Red Diamonds win the match.

1. Home vs Away Performance: Urawa Red Diamonds have a higher probability of winning at home than FC Tokyo away. Even though Urawa has only won 20% of their last home games, this is still higher than FC Tokyo’s 0% away record.

2. Defensive and Offensive Potential: Urawa Red Diamonds have a 36% offensive potential at home compared to FC Tokyo’s 43% away, meaning they have a slightly lower risk of conceding a goal. Additionally, Urawa has a higher defensive potential at home (50%) than FC Tokyo away (71%).

3. Match Result Probabilities: According to the provided probabilities, Urawa Red Diamonds have a 47.18% success probability of winning the match, significantly higher than FC Tokyo’s 18.46% chance of winning.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Under 2.5”

1. Score statistics: Recent statistics show few goals scored by Urawa Red Diamonds and FC Tokyo in their recent matches (Urawa Red Diamonds averaging 1 goal per match, and FC Tokyo averaging 1.2 goals per match). It is less likely that the total goals will exceed 2.5.

2. Offensive and defensive performance: The offensive potential of Urawa Red Diamonds and FC Tokyo is 36% and 43% respectively, which is quite low. Additionally, FC Tokyo’s defensive potential is 71%, suggesting a strong defense that will concede few goals.

3. Head-to-head history: Recent matches at home for Urawa Red Diamonds and away matches for FC Tokyo have generally seen a total of goals under 2.5. For example, three out of the last five home matches for Urawa Red Diamonds have had fewer than 2.5 goals, as have three out of the last five away matches for FC Tokyo.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The recent history of both teams shows a tendency for high-scoring matches, especially in Urawa Red Diamonds’ home games and FC Tokyo’s away games. In fact, Urawa’s last 5 home matches have all seen the team score at least one goal, and FC Tokyo has scored in four out of their last five away matches.

2. The offensive and defensive statistics of both teams also suggest that they are both likely to score. Urawa Red Diamonds have a 36% offensive potential and a 50% defensive potential at home, meaning they are likely to concede goals. Similarly, FC Tokyo has a 43% offensive potential and a 71% defensive potential away, indicating a high probability that both teams will score.

3. Finally, the probability of both teams scoring is relatively high at 54.87%, with a potential yield of 1.75. This slightly favors the “Yes” option for the prediction of both teams scoring, especially considering that the alternative probability of both teams not scoring is slightly lower at 45.13%.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw – 34.36% chance of success: 3.60

Bet on the exact result

Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1 FC Tokyo

1. The offensive potential of Urawa Red Diamonds at home is 36% with an average of one goal per match. FC Tokyo has a defensive potential of 71% and concedes an average of 2 goals away from home, indicating that Urawa could score at least two goals.
2. Statistics indicate that in 54.87% of cases, both teams score during the match. Given FC Tokyo’s offensive potential away from home (43%), it is likely that FC Tokyo could score a goal.
3. Looking at the recent home matches of Urawa Red Diamonds and the away matches of FC Tokyo, there is a trend of scoring and conceding multiple goals per match. This reinforces the idea that the final score could be Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1 FC Tokyo.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Urawa Red Diamonds struggle to win at home, with only a 20% win rate in their last 5 matches. The club averages 1 goal per game but concedes an average of 1.4 goals.
On the other hand, FC Tokyo does not perform well away from home. They have lost their last 5 away games, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding 2.
Red Diamonds have slightly better chances of winning at 47.18%, compared to Tokyo’s 18.46%. A draw is valued at 34.36%.
In terms of goals, there is a 77.44% chance of more than 1.5 goals being scored. However, the match has a 50.77% chance of ending with fewer than 3.5 goals.
Both teams have a 54.87% chance of scoring.
In conclusion, Urawa Red Diamonds appear to be slight favorites. However, the low offensive potential of both teams suggests a match with fewer than 3.5 goals.

The potential number of goals

Urawa Red Diamonds has an unstable performance at home, with only 20% wins and 60% draws. They have scored 11 goals but conceded 13. On the other hand, FC Tokyo, playing away, has not won any match with only 20% draws, scoring 5 goals and conceding 8.

Offensively, Urawa averages 1 goal per match at home, while Tokyo scores 1.2 goals away. Defensively, Urawa concedes more (1.4 goals per match) than Tokyo (2 goals per match).

The probability of victory leans towards Urawa at 47.18%, with odds at 1.90. A draw is also likely at 34.36% with odds of 3.60. Tokyo’s victory is less expected with a probability of 18.46% and odds of 3.75.

The advised prediction is: “Draw or Urawa wins” with a probability of 81.54% and odds at 1.20.

Regarding goals, there is a 77.44% chance of “Over 1.5 goals in the match” with odds at 1.28. The possibility of “Both teams to score” is 54.87% with odds of 1.75.

Based on previous matches, the defense of both teams seems shaky, but the chances of Urawa winning or drawing appear high.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In summary, the forecast leans towards a dominance of Urawa Red Diamonds for this match against FC Tokyo. A home win is considered despite a mixed performance from both teams, overshadowed by their rather vulnerable defense. An option of a draw or Urawa winning with odds of 1.20 would be a reasonable approach.

As for goals, it is likely that both teams will score, with odds of 1.75, but the match could well stay below the 3.5 goal mark. A forecast of “Over 1.5 goals in the match” could also be considered, with a 77.44% chance of happening at odds of 1.28.

The potentially most profitable bet would be a draw, considering its odds of 3.60 and a success probability of 34.36%. However, a specific result of 2-1 in favor of Urawa could also be contemplated despite the inherent uncertainty of such a bet.

Overall, the analysis suggests several viable options for bettors based on their risk aversion and confidence in the performance of both teams. The safest bet seems to be “Draw or Urawa win”, while more adventurous bettors could opt for an exact score of 2-1 for Urawa.