Tipps VfL Wolfsburg FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga 18/05/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Mainz wins the match.

1. Over the last 5 home matches, Wolfsburg has drawn in 60% of cases, suggesting a high percentage of non-win outcomes, favoring the draw or Mainz to win the match prediction.

2. Mainz has a strong defensive performance in their away matches, conceding an average of 0.8 goals per game, which could limit Wolfsburg’s ability to score and favor the prediction that Mainz will not lose.

3. The odds indicate a higher probability of Mainz winning or a draw (64.86%) compared to Wolfsburg winning (60.14%). This means that bookmakers consider it more likely that Mainz will win or the match will end in a draw.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Over 2.5 goals in the match

1. Wolfsburg has an average of 1.2 goals scored per match at home in their last 5 matches, while Mainz has an average of 2 goals scored per match away in their last 5 matches. This gives a combined average of 3.2 goals which is higher than 2.5.

2. Wolfsburg has shown defensive frailty by conceding 11 goals in their last 5 matches, while Mainz has conceded 6 goals in their last 5 away matches. It is likely that both teams will score during the match, increasing the chances of a total goals over 2.5.

3. Looking at past statistics, there is a 62.16% success probability for a total of over 2.5 goals in the match, which is higher than the probability for a total of under 2.5 goals (2.10). This trend suggests that the match could be goal-rich.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

“Both teams score: Yes”

1. Over their last 5 respective matches, Wolfsburg has an average of 1.2 goals scored per home match and Mainz has an average of 2 goals scored per away match, which highlights that both teams are capable of scoring in this match.

2. Analyzing Wolfsburg’s last 5 home matches, the team has conceded at least one goal in three out of the five games played, particularly against Mönchengladbach, Augsburg, and VfB Stuttgart. Mainz, although often struggling to win away from home, has still managed to score in three out of their last five matches on the road.

3. The odds assigned to the various possible outcomes also show that there is a 59.46% probability of both teams scoring. This is therefore a likely scenario. The recent performance statistics of both teams confirm this.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Mainz wins the match.

Bet on the exact result

“Wolfsburg 1-1 Mainz”

1. Draw Trend: At home, Wolfsburg has drawn in 60% of their last 5 matches. Away from home, Mainz also has a 60% draw rate over the same period. This trend suggests that a draw is a likely outcome.

2. Defensive Performance: Wolfsburg has conceded 11 goals in their last 5 home matches, averaging 2.2 goals per game. Meanwhile, Mainz has conceded 6 goals in their last 5 away matches, averaging 1.2 goals per game. These are relatively high numbers indicating leaky defenses. In this context, a 1-1 scoreline is plausible.

3. Offensive Performance: On average, Wolfsburg scores 1.2 goals per home game and Mainz scores 2 goals per away game. This implies a high likelihood of both teams scoring in this encounter, further supporting the idea of a 1-1 match score.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Wolfsburg has had mixed performances at home recently with 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches. They also have a negative goal difference with 8 goals scored and 11 conceded.

Mainz, on the other hand, has not won any of their last 5 away matches, with 3 draws and 2 losses. Their offensive performance is weak, with only 4 goals scored and 6 conceded.

Wolfsburg shows a balanced performance with an offensive and defensive potential of 43%, while Mainz has a higher offensive potential at 71% but limited defense at 29%.

The probability of a Mainz win is higher at 39.86% compared to Wolfsburg at 35.14%, but a draw is also likely (25%).

In terms of goals, the probability of more than 1.5 goals in the match is high (82.43%). Additionally, the probability of both teams scoring is 59.46%.

In conclusion, this match could favor Mainz, but considering Wolfsburg’s recent home performances and Mainz’s away form, a draw could also be considered.

The potential number of goals

Wolfsburg, at home, has had mixed performances recently. In 5 matches, they have won 2 times and drawn 3 times. They have scored 8 goals and conceded 11 goals. Their offensive potential is at 43%, while their defensive potential is identical.

On the other hand, Mainz has struggled away from home. They have not won a single time in their last 5 matches, with 3 draws. They have only scored 4 goals and conceded 6 goals. However, their offensive potential is quite high at 71% and their defensive potential is at 29%.

The probabilities of the outcomes are fairly balanced. Wolfsburg has a 35.14% chance of winning, while Mainz has a 39.86% chance. The draw has a 25% chance.

Considering the number of goals, there is a very strong probability of over 1.5 goals in the match, at 82.43%. Less than 3.5 goals is also very likely, at 72.3%. And both teams have a 59.46% chance of scoring.

In these conditions, a bet on over 1.5 goals in the match seems quite safe. Then, the choice of the winner depends on your intuition, considering that Mainz has a higher offensive potential but poor away results, while Wolfsburg is strong at home.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, this match between Wolfsburg and Mainz presents several interesting betting opportunities. Firstly, the current form of both teams and their recent performances suggest that Mainz may have the edge in terms of winning, although a draw is also a possibility. Furthermore, given their respective goal averages, there is a high chance that over 2.5 goals will be scored in the game, and it is also likely that both teams will score at least one goal.

Based on probabilities, the bet “Mainz to win the match” seems to offer good value. However, it is worth considering that Mainz has struggled in away matches, and Wolfsburg has shown strength at home.

For bettors looking to win big, a correct score of 1-1 could be a bold but potentially profitable choice. However, as always in sports betting, it is important to bet responsibly and not rely solely on statistics. Factors such as the current form of players, injuries, or psychological context can also have a significant impact on the outcome of a match.