Tipps Vissel Kobe Machida Zelvia J1 League 26/06/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Vissel Kobe wins the match.

1. Vissel Kobe has a very strong home performance, with a 80% win rate in their last 5 matches played at home. This gives Vissel Kobe a significant advantage in this match.
2. Although Machida Zelvia has a decent performance in their away games that seems to balance the favorable predictions for Vissel Kobe, it should be noted that Machida’s offensive potential is 64%, lower than Vissel Kobe’s defensive capability of 70% (100% – 30% concession rate), thus reducing Machida Zelvia’s chances of winning.
3. The combined probability of Vissel Kobe winning the match and drawing is 74.16%, which is significantly higher than Machida Zelvia’s 25.84% chance of winning. The odds also support this prediction with a 1.30 odds for the “Draw or Vissel Kobe wins” outcome, indicating a strong likelihood of this result.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

My prediction is: Over 2.5 goals in the match.

1. Both teams have a strong offensive performance: Vissel Kobe has scored 7 goals in their last 5 home matches, while Machida Zelvia has scored 11 goals in their last 5 away matches. This scoring trend suggests that there is a likelihood for at least 3 goals to be scored in total.

2. Both teams also concede goals regularly: Vissel Kobe has conceded 9 goals in their last 5 home matches, and Machida Zelvia has conceded 11 goals in their last 5 away matches. This indicates that both teams’ defenses can be breached, increasing the possibility of seeing more than 2.5 goals in the match.

3. The recent matches of both teams have seen high scores: Several of Machida Zelvia’s recent matches have had over 2.5 goals, and Vissel Kobe also has matches with a goal count exceeding 2.5. This further supports the idea that this match could end with over 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The offensive performances of both teams: Over their last 5 matches, Vissel Kobe has scored an average of 1 goal per match and Machida Zelvia has scored an average of 1.8 goals per match. This suggests that both teams have a strong ability to score goals, increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring in this encounter.

2. The defensive performances of both teams: Vissel Kobe has conceded an average of 0.8 goals per match in their last 5 home matches, and Machida Zelvia has conceded an average of 1 goal per match in their last 5 away matches. This indicates that both teams are likely to concede goals, further strengthening the probability of both teams scoring in this match.

3. Match history: In Vissel Kobe’s last 5 home matches, 3 have seen the opposing team score. Similarly, in Machida Zelvia’s last 5 away matches, 2 have seen the home team score. This shows a trend where both teams have allowed their opponents to score, suggesting that both teams could score in this match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Machida Zelvia wins the match

Bet on the exact result

Vissel Kobe 1-1 Machida Zelvia

1. The teams Vissel Kobe and Machida Zelvia have shown fairly even recent performances, with both winning 80% of their last 5 matches respectively, indicating they are quite comparable in terms of ability.

2. Goal statistics also point to a possibility of a draw: Vissel Kobe has averaged 1 goal per home match and Machida Zelvia has scored an average of 1.8 goals per away match. Considering Vissel Kobe’s defensive record of conceding 0.8 goals per home match, a 1-1 scoreline seems plausible.

3. Looking at the betting odds, a draw has a success probability of 29.78%, which is higher than Machida Zelvia’s win probability (25.84%). Additionally, in the total goals probabilities, “Under 2.5 goals in the match” has odds of 1.70 and “Over 2.5 goals in the match” has a success probability of only 42.13%, suggesting a low-scoring and potentially balanced match.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Vissel Kobe has a strong home performance with victories in 80% of matches. However, they have conceded more goals (9) than they have scored (7).

Machida Zelvia shows strength away from home, with a similar 80% win rate. They have been balanced in scoring and conceding the same number of goals (11).

In terms of goals per home match, Vissel Kobe averages 1 goal scored and 0.8 goals conceded, translating to an offensive potential of 36% and a defensive potential of 29%.

On the road, Machida Zelvia averages 1.8 goals scored and 1 goal conceded, boasting an attractive offensive potential of 64% and a defensive potential of 36%.

The probability of Vissel Kobe winning is 44.38% (odds at 2.10) while Machida Zelvia has a 25.84% chance (odds at 3.40). A draw, with odds at 3.30, has a 29.78% likelihood.

More goals are expected than not, with a 69.66% chance of over 1.5 goals (odds at 1.36) and a 42.13% chance of over 2.5 goals (odds at 2.10) being scored.

Regarding both teams to score, the chances are nearly equal (49.44% for yes and 50.56% for no).

In their most recent matches, Vissel Kobe has shown strong results at home (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) while Machida Zelvia has also performed well away from home (4 wins, 1 draw).

In summary, the hosts Vissel Kobe are in good form but Machida Zelvia also exhibit strength on the road. Both teams are prolific, so expect goals. However, the trajectory probability suggests a Vissel Kobe win or a draw.

The potential number of goals

Vissel Kobe, in their last 5 home matches, has a win rate of 80%, averaging 1 goal scored per match. However, they have a weaker defensive potential with 9 goals conceded.
Machida Zelvia, in their last 5 away matches, also has an 80% win rate, but their offensive potential is higher with an average of 1.8 goals per match and 11 goals conceded.
The probability of Vissel Kobe winning is 44.38%, while Machida Zelvia’s is only 25.84%. However, the probabilities of a draw or a win for Machida Zelvia are higher, at 55.62%.
The match promises to be balanced, with a slight tendency towards goals. The probability of over 1.5 goals in the match is 69.66%, while the probability of over 2.5 goals drops to 42.13%.
Both teams have almost an equal chance of scoring, with a 49.44% chance of it happening compared to a 50.56% chance of it not happening.
In conclusion, this match seems tight and could end with few goals scored on each side.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In summary, the clash between Vissel Kobe and Machida Zelvia is shaping up to be exciting. Given their recent performances, it is quite likely that the match will end in a draw or a victory for Vissel Kobe. The strong offensive capabilities of both teams suggest a match with over 2.5 goals. It is also probable that both teams will score given their recent offensive and defensive performances. Despite the prediction of a Vissel Kobe win or a draw, a Machida Zelvia victory could offer an interesting value bet, considering their solid away performance. Betting on the exact score, 1-1, could be a reasonable option, given the balance of recent performances and goal statistics of these teams. Ultimately, it is essential for bettors to consider these factors to maximize their chances of success.